Problem 1

Problem 1 DayBlueberry MuffinsCinnamon BunsCupcakes 1301845 2341726 3321927 4341923 5352222 6302348 7342329 8362520 9292414 10312618 11352747 12312826 13372927 14343124 15333322 a. From plotting we can see that: Blueberry precious stone has stable series and varies around average. Thus the last info point becomes the cipher for the next day, which is 33. Cinnamon bun has a trend (upward movement). Thus, the forecast equals the last value of the series + or difference between last 2 values of the series. 33 + (33 31)= 33 + 2 = 35 Cupcake has seasonal variation with a poll every 5 days (start to reach high gross sales at day 0, 5, and 10), the next peak will be at day 16. b. When we use sales selective information instead of consider, we are assuming that no stockouts because demand equals sales if there are no shortages/backorder. (p.82) Problem 2 MonthSales Feb19 Mar18 Apr15 whitethorn20 Jun18 Jul22 Aug20 a. b. (1)Month tSales yty 11919 21836 31545 42080 51890 622132 720140 28132542 n = 7 ?t ^2 = 140 b (slope) = (7x542 ) - (28x132) = .5 (7x140) 784 a (y intercept) = 132 (.5x28) = 16.

86 7 Ft = a + bt For September (t = 8): Ft = 16.86 + (.5 x 8) = 20.86 (2)MA(5)= 20 + 22 + 18 + 20+ 15 = 19 5 (3) Month true Forecast Calculation Mar1819=Previous forecast + .2 (Actual Previous forecast) Apr1518.8= 19 + .2 (18 19) May2018.04= 18.8 + .2 (15 18.8) Jun1818.43=18.04 + .2(20 18.04) Jul2218.34=18.43 + .2(18 18.43) Aug2019.07=18.34 + .2 (22 18.34) September19.26=19.07 + .2 (20 19.07) (4)From graph in (a) the demand is stable series and varies around average. Thus the last data point becomes the forecast for the month, which is 20 (5)Weighted average = (.6 x20) + (.3x22) + (.1x18) = 20.4... If you want to apprehend a full essay, order it on our website: Orderessay

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